AI Agents and Prediction Markets

How do AI agents change prediction markets, and what does it take to build these products across the US and Japan?

Join Tokyo AI and Orrick for three short talks and a 45-minute panel. A former CFTC official will examine the US regulatory outlook, while the founders of POYP and MIRAIMA will bring perspectives from Japan on AI traders, points-based participation and collective forecasts.

For AI builders, founders, researchers, and product or compliance teams. No prior knowledge of prediction markets is required.

When: Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 18:00-21:00 JSTWhere: Tokyo Venture Capital Hub, Azabudai Hills Garden Plaza B, Toranomon, Minato City, Tokyo

Agenda

Three 15-minute talks are followed by a 45-minute panel, including audience Q&A.

  • 18:00 - Doors open

  • 18:30-18:40 - Welcome and introduction

  • 18:40-18:55 - Talk 1: US Prediction Markets: The Year Ahead (Dan Ullman)

  • 18:55-19:10 - Talk 2: What Happens When AI Trades the Future? (Takanori Shirasaka / shora)

  • 19:10-19:25 - Talk 3: MIRAIMA: Points, Participation and Collective Forecasts (Keita Adachi)

  • 19:25-20:10 - Moderated panel and audience Q&A

  • 20:10-21:00 - Networking and refreshments

  • 21:00 - Doors close

Talks

Talk 1: US Prediction Markets: The Year Ahead

Speaker: Dan Ullman, partner at Orrick.

Bio: Dan advises crypto, fintech and gaming clients on regulatory and enforcement matters. He spent 16 years at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, most recently as an Associate Director in its Division of Enforcement. His work covers prediction markets and event contracts.

Description: Prediction markets have taken the US by storm, capturing the imagination of market participants while raising questions from regulators and state authorities. Dan will explore where the US currently stands with respect to Prediction Markets, what’s currently happening in this space from a market and regulatory perspective, and what we can expect to evolve over the next 12 months.

Talk 2: What Happens When AI Trades the Future?

Speaker: Takanori Shirasaka / shora, founder and CEO of POYP.

Bio: Takanori is the founder and CEO of POYP, a prediction-market app in Japan built around points rather than money. He previously served as CTO of an AI startup, where he led machine learning and computer vision products, and studied machine learning at the University of Tokyo. His work focuses on market design, prediction markets as information infrastructure, and the legal constraints on running them in Japan.

Description: AI agents now account for a large share of trading on major prediction markets, yet frontier models given real capital in 2026 lost money across the board. Takanori will examine what actually changed when AI started trading the future: who participates, who wins, and why forecasting accuracy does not translate into returns. He will then explain how POYP, a prediction market built in Japan, treats AI traders, and what that choice reveals about who a market is for.

Talk 3: MIRAIMA: Points, Participation and Collective Forecasts

Speaker: Keita Adachi, CEO of Masentic, the company behind MIRAIMA.

Bio: Keita leads Masentic, which developed MIRAIMA, a free, points-based prediction app for Japan. The platform invites people to forecast outcomes in areas such as news, elections and sports.

Description: Keita will introduce MIRAIMA's points-based model and discuss how it invites participation in Japan. He will examine what an operator can learn from collective forecasts, and the product choices involved in making prediction markets accessible to a wider audience.

Panel

When does AI improve a crowd forecast, and when does the crowd know something the model misses? Our speakers will compare how agents and people make predictions, what founders can learn from forecast quality, and the product and regulatory questions that arise in the US and Japan. Audience Q&A is part of the 45-minute panel.

Organizers and supporters

Tokyo AI (TAI) connects engineers, researchers, founders and others building AI in Japan through talks and community events. This event is co-organized with Orrick, hosted at Tokyo Venture Capital Hub with support from Global Hands-On VC, and supported by Foundry Labs.

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